We don’t do policy research.
Instead we like to use what we call “Up-down Economics” to explain how
changes in domestic policy, politics and global developments among other factors
could affect the macroeconomic fundamentals in Sri Lanka,
so that your business can make more informed decisions.
We don’t dance around decimals
We don’t believe in giving forecasts that point to a single decimal point number. Why not? We believe this conveys a message of 100% certainty of the future of an economic variable – and in an ever-changing world, it is simply impossible to be 100% certain about almost anything.
Instead, we focus on giving our clients a more accurate directional view and prefer to communicate our views within ranges and probabilities.
“ We have to view the future not as an event which is predetermined and predictable or determined already, but as a range of possibilities… “
- Howard Marks -
To learn more about how we use scenarios, you can read our blog post on it here.
We believe change is the only constant
“ When we have a strong view, we express it with strong conviction, and when we don’t - we say so ”
- Frontier's Philosophy -
Our team keeps a keen eye on the economic variables and important events locally and globally, which heavily influence our views. And when these factors change, we’re willing to change our views to help our clients make more informed decisions.
So, when we have a strong view, we express it with strong conviction, and when we don’t - we say so.
Our model is our team
We aren’t really keen about statistical and highly quantitative models. Particularly in an economy like Sri Lanka’s, there are many factors that move markets that cannot be quantified and entered into a model (politics being the most obvious).
So, instead, our team tries to understand the behavior of important local and global economic variables - and most importantly, we try to understand how policy makers think.
As a result, our views are outcomes of an intensely collaborative process which involves several rounds of discussions and constructive arguments – a task that takes a considerable amount of time but is worth it.
To learn more about our team, check our analysts page