Shiran Fernando

Our Lead Economist, Shiran Fernando, was recently featured in LMD magazine's 'Most Respected' edition for 2017, giving his perspectives on corporate culture.

A round up of the key events during 2017 and its impact to the Sri Lankan and the global economy.

An analysis of the current setbacks faced by Sri Lanka in building up foreign reserves and solutions to tackle it

Overview of the expected growth rate of the Sri Lankan economy.

The Ceylon Today newspaper reported on Sunday, February 19 that foreign investors have withdrawn over 100 billion rupees from the Government Securities Market over the past eighteen weeks.

Shiran Fernando noted that removing Dr. Coomaraswamy from his post would have negative repercussions and could even reverse the gains made last year.

Fernando commented on the good, the bad and the weird aspects of Budget 2016.

Private sector stakeholders and independent analysts yesterday hailed the 2017 Budget proposals describing them as, “progressive, sensible, and reinforcing continuity,” as well as providing greater clarity on the Government’s policies.

In what could signal a new phase in Sino-Indian economic relations, China has invited India to help in developing Sri Lanka, including taking part in the multibillion dollar Colombo International Financial City funded by Beijing.

Sri Lanka's finance ministers strike at midnight, while the country sleeps. The public wakes up to the shocking news in the Gazette, the government journal that prints official decrees, of price increases in selected goods following overnight tax increases.

Sri Lanka’s 2Q grew by only 2.6% compared with 5.5% in 1Q due to floods and inconsistent policy making, official data showed, with agriculture, industries and construction dragging down growth.Frontier Research's Shiran Fernando gave his insight.

Still higher private sector credit growth and the rising inflation will put pressure on the Monetary Board to increase the policy rates and it is only a matter of time the new Central Bank Governor settles in before the next policy tightening takes place, an economist said.

While this may be good news for both countries, observers in Sri Lanka view President Maithripala Sirisena’s pro-China tilt as an act of desperation after his administration had failed to bring in substantial foreign investments. The government’s U-turn on Colombo Port City Project by giving it green light in March this year has angered greens who view it as a sellout to China.

Shiran Fernando gives views on Prime Ministers development plans.

Despite Government efforts to selectively impose a VAT hike from next week its impact on private healthcare and education would be contradictory to the country’s goals of creating a knowledge economy, analysts warned yesterday.

Sri Lankan shares gained on Wednesday to end at their highest in more than a week as investors bought beaten-down stocks, but concerns over a higher budget deficit and economic growth dampened investor sentiment, brokers said.

Last week, The Sunday Leader spoke to politicians, civil society and lawyers for their input on the Weliweriya incident. This week, the focus turns to the business world, as residents in Rathupaswala pointed an accusatory finger at a factory in the area which they said was contaminating the groundwater, making it acidic.

Sri Lanka * market update *

Sri Lanka’s 2016 budget presented on Friday drew mixed reviews while two issues stood out – whether the bureaucracy is capable of quickly implementing the decisions, particularly taxes, and not addressing the foreign exchange crisis.

Sri Lanka’s economy should grow between 6.0-6.5 percent this year given strong credit growth after key policy rates have been held at record lows since April, Central Bank Governor Arjuna Mahendran said on Tuesday.

Interview on Business Today Program on Channel Eye

Post-war stimulus packages by Sri Lanka’s government have pushed up consumption demand which is now having an adverse impact on the trade deficit and balance of payments. This is one reason for the negative BOP position so far this year, Shiran Fernando at Frontier Research said.

Sri Lanka’s central bank kept key policy rates steady at record lows on Friday, ahead of parliamentary elections in August and as inflation is expected to ease in the next few months.

Our cheif economist Shiran fernando was featured on the LMD interview about corporate prospects.

Our chief economist gives his view on the Sri Lankan banking sector in this LMD interview

Sri Lanka managed to win back GSP+ after 7 years and is expected to generate additional US$ 500 Mn in sales annually. This article is discusses the potential implications of this development

A discussion on the role of sentiment on the economic direction

Insights provided by Frontier Research on the Capital Market Conference 2017 organised to promote a dialogue on on ‘State of the economy’, ‘Impact of the Budget on Capital Markets’ and ‘Equity markets’.

Shiran Fernando reviews trends in Sri Lanka’s external reserves

Shiran Fernando discussed the ‘Macro Insights for 2017’ with a detailed outlook on interest rates and currency trends while identifying key factors to watch out for during the new year.

The government’s current reform agenda is both ad-hoc and unlikely to be completed, according to a panel of economists who said this could exacerbate the current low growth climate, adding to the woes of a volatile coalition administration.

While the government is harping on adopting neutral foreign and liberalized trade policies to push exports and investments, positive policy pronouncements do not appear to bear tangible results by trickling into the official data, Shiran Fernando further discusses this statement.

Sri Lanka plans to overcome the current economic challenge by uplifting the country from a lower –middle-income country to a higher –middle income country in the first instance and thereafter to a high –income country within the next 3 to 4 years.

The Sunday Times Business Club two specialists on the subject of taxes, Suresh Perera and Shiran Fernando to diagnose the tax phobia and prescribe some remedies at its members meeting held at the Kingsbury hotel in Colombo

Sri Lanka’s core inflation picked up slightly in September, data from the Department of Census and Statistics showed on Friday, despite a rate hike by the central bank two months ago.

Sri Lanka has revised down its inflation figure for August after finding a calculation error, the country’s statistics office said on Friday.

The Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka took advantage of strong credit market momentum to execute a $1.5 billion bond deal on Monday, which should help re-build foreign exchange reserves depleted by heavy debt re-payments.

Biz first review

Revisiting ties with China, a bailout deal from the IMF, and increases in VAT have been making headlines recently. What does this all mean from an economic standpoint, and is Sri Lanka following the right tactics?

Situated almost in the middle of the Indian Ocean, there is no escaping Sri Lanka’s centrality.

Sri Lankan shares fell for a third straight session on Wednesday as a downgrade by Fitch Ratings of some companies that hold dollar bonds hit investor sentiment, traders said, days after the ratings agency downgraded the country’s sovereign rating.

Sri Lanka has experienced a contraction in inward remittances after several years amidst falling oil prices and slower hiring in the Gulf nations, a top research firm said.

The maiden budget of the new government has burdened the people by imposing indirect taxes, three panelist discusses this issue

The Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka returned to the international bond markets on Tuesday for the second time this year.

Acting quicker than it did in early 2012, the decision by Sri Lanka’s Central Bank to give up defending the rupee in September of this year bodes well for a quicker recovery of foreign exchange reserves.

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Sri Lanka’s central bank on Friday kept policy rates steady at multi-year lows for a seventh straight month, as expected, despite private sector credit growth slowing further.

The Government borrowed more than $1 billion in four days, mostly through local Government securities, Central Bank data showed on Thursday, with economists blaming poor revenues and higher expenditures for the move.

- Sri Lanka may become an early issuer of Chinese yuan-denominated sovereign bonds to the international financial market

Despite a strong headline Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2013, many Sri Lanka businesses serving domestic consumers experienced very subdued business conditions during the year. The reason as to why strong economic growth failed to translate into better business opportunities can simply be explained using a different approach in calculating the GDP

Sri Lanka, despite been able to raise commercial debt via sovereign bonds have been unable to attract sufficient FDI flows to the country. This article explores the underlying reasons for this situation and opportunities to overcome this challenge

A discussion on the implications of the changes in the inflation measurement metrics.

Outlook for the Sri Lankan economy

Sri Lanka needs to recalibrate its expectations and push policy makers to get low lying fruits, for the private sector to take off, ‎Frontier Research Product Head and Economist Shiran Fernando said.

Evaluation of the vulnerability of Sri Lanka to world markets

While the general public and certain industries may feel the pinch from specific budget measures, Budget 2017 is fiscally responsible in relative terms compared to recent years.Shiran Fernando picks the key takeaways for the year ahead

Shiran Fernando was recently featured on TV1's Biz 1st Review 360 program on the 11th of November 2016, where he talked about the impact of a Trump Presidency on Developing Economies.

Shiran Fernando, our Lead Economist, was recently a panelist on TV1's Face the Nation program held on the 17th of October 2016. Here are some excerpts from the show.

Sri Lanka will not suffer grave economic downfall owing to the tense situation between India and Pakistan, economists predict. However, there may be a trickle down impact on the country if the situation continues and will be a setback to the government’s efforts to revive trade within the region.

The Supreme Court has cleared the Nation Building Tax (NBT) amendment, which was moved recently in Parliament, paving the way for it to be increased to 4% if the House gives its approval, the Speaker said yesterday.

Sri Lanka’s central bank raised its main interest rates by 50 basis points each on Thursday in a surprise move aimed at curbing stubbornly high credit growth that is adding to concern about inflationary pressures.

Sri Lanka’s is bracing for the fallout of of Brexit as Britain voted to leave the European Union, a top export destination and the third country’s third largest source generation market for tourists.

Sri Lanka’s May consumer prices and core annual inflation rose to multi-month highs, data from the state-run Census and Statistics Department showed on Tuesday after the government increased value-added tax (VAT) to crimp a soaring deficit.

Sri Lanka’s central bank on Tuesday kept benchmark rates steady, as expected, as it gauges the effects of recent tightening, amid the final stages of talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $1.5-billion loan to tide over a payments crisis.

Sri Lanka’s central bank kept interest rates on hold on Tuesday as it gauges the impact of its recent tightening measures and monitors government efforts to secure a $1.5 billion IMF loan to avert a balance of payments crisis.

Sri Lanka’s central bank unexpectedly raised its key policy interest rates by 50 basis points on Friday from a record low, to prevent demand-driven inflationary pressure.

Sri Lanka’s central bank kept its key policy interest rates unchanged on Monday, saying the effects of previous adjustments are still trickling down into the economy while private sector credit growth will decelerate slowly.

According to Shiran Fernando Sri Lanka’s latest budget proved to be more realistic than the “revolutionary” budget that government ministers have been promising in recent days

Interview on Business Today Program on Channel Eye (21st October 2015)

Sri Lanka has imposed a 100 percent margin on letters of credit (LC) for motor vehicles with immediate effect to discourage unnecessary imports our analysts Shiran Fernando gives his thoughts.

Sri Lanka’s rupee currency fell more than 3 percent to a record low of 139.00 per dollar on Friday after the central bank effectively floated the currency by ceasing to quote its own reference rate.

Sri Lanka’s central bank has formally announced that it will issue all treasury bonds by public auction, and no longer by direct placement, responding days before a parliamentary election to criticism of a controversial offering in February.

Sri Lanka will draw on its foreign currency reserves to settle a five-year $500 million sovereign bond maturing on Thursday, central bank officials said, a move analysts say would put pressure on interest rates and the rupee.

Sri Lanka’s central bank kept key policy rates steady at record lows for a 10th straight month on Tuesday, and said stable inflation and steady credit expansion should help the economy grow by around 8 over this year and next.

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